The imagination that AnsarAllah in western coast war has rattled and about to collapse is wrong, since the method and details of the tactics used by AnsarAllah, specially for general audience are not clear.
(The reasons can be media lack of reporting, biased news from media of governments and etc. which are not our topic here.)
Nonetheless understanding AnsarAllah’s tactics and goals in different fields and examining Yemen war form the beginning until now is the basis to understand evolutions in Yemen.
Al Hudaydah battle which started seven months ago has reached the dead end right now which even made Americans intolerant and forced Saudi Coalition to insanely attack al Hudaydah from all aspects and putting political deadline on there hand.
Saudi Coalition operation in al Hudaydah has ceased temporarily and it is rumored that AnsarAllah demanded international organizations to interfere.
As Muhammed Ali Al Houthi said indeed there are negotiations but AnsarAllah will not retreat from their goals either for sure. The reason has roots in AnsarAllah establishment principles.
1. How Yemen war started and AnsarAllah gained power.
The Shiite-Sunni confrontation dates back to old times and 28 years ago when Ali Abdullah Saleh established Arabic Republic of Yemen and submitted northern lands to Saudi Arabia, Shias became angrier.
Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi under the influence of Islamic revolution in Iran, started fighting against arrogance and Ali Abdullah Saleh and martyred in this way and his successors in six wars until 2010 and finally in a revolution in 2012 forced Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign from power.
After his resignation, Mansoor Hadi in an agreement with AnsarAllah and from a no-rival election with the goal of peaceful power transition became the president of transitioning government.
He first claim his goal to be fighting against terrorism (al Qaeda), however after a short period of time, started confronting AnsarAllah and put Southerners in power mainly and ignored the peace treaty contents and kept officials from previous government in power.
AnsarAllah did not sit back; entered Sanaa and in a short time took over presidency palace and other governmental buildings in August 2014.
After that they started some political negotiations between groups and in initial stages due to dissociative plans of Mansoor Hadi to form six different states in Yemen, they left the negotiations but after several months of disagreement and political victory of AnsarAllah, Mansoor Hadi reached to an agreement with AnsarAllah.
But Mansoor Hadi and Khaled Bahah(president and prime minister) in a vague movement, resigned in parliament. Parliament declining it and AnsarAllah takes it as a treachery, the government was dismissed and a presidency council with a transition parliament were formed.
Mansoor Hadi fled to Aden and considered his resignation under pressure of AnsarAllah and under support of Saudi Arabia started the confrontation with AnsarAllah.
2. What are sides of confrontation in Yemen?
AnsarAllah: whose military and political supporters are Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq and other Moghawemat groups in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and etc.
Side led by Mansoor Hadi: Islah party, Southerners movement, socialists, Naseris, Salafists and etc. with Southerners incline more to UAE and other groups led by Mansoor Hadi incline more toward Saudi Arabia.
Al Qaeda, ISIS and subgroups: which had influence on other parts of Yemen but now are concentrated in center and east of Yemen.
National Congress Party: which followed Ali Abdullah Saleh at first and in coalition with AnsarAllah and then after Ali Abdullah Saleh separation from AnsarAllah, it also divided into two branches. Followers of Saleh joined Saudi Coalition and the other joined AnsarAllah.
3. What will happen if al Hudaydah falls?
Possible scenarios are:
– Continuation of war: engagements will continue in other areas such as Sa’adah, Sanaa, other coastal areas (toward primary targets) and other fronts such as Bayda, Jawf and Taiz (toward secondary targets).
– Incipient of political negotiations: which is most likely to happen and its flow will be complicated as we have seen in Yemen before.
However defeating AnsarAllah politically is not possible and agreement on peaceful transition of power under international organizations supervision is more plausible.
If al Hudaydah survives, AnsarAllah by defeating the pricey seven months operation of Saudi Coalition will achieve a great victory which helps them to have a higher hand in political negotiations in future.
To be continued …